TREASURY will learn how much revenue is earned from the mining tax only at the end of October, a Senate hearing has been told.
The budget papers forecast the minerals resource rent tax (MRRT) would earn $3 billion in 2012/13 but there are doubts it will due to weaker commodity prices.
BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are expected to make the first payments of the new tax from Monday.
Treasury tax analysis division general manager Roger Brake said his department would receive the first details from the Australian Tax Office from late October.
"It would not be until the following week to get the return forms," Mr Blake said in Canberra on Thursday.
Treasury revenue group executive director Rob Heferen said there was uncertainty in analysing the first MRRT instalment payment in great detail.
"The instalment payment may provide some indicators about what happened in that quarter, but to extrapolate to the year from that, when there will be specific factors that need to be taken into account, is quite risky," Mr Heferen said.
"That's not unique to this tax, that's across a range of taxes."
But Mr Heferen said the first payments would still provide an outline for what might occur with the MRRT.
Mr Heferen, a member of the government's business tax working group, said the body would release a draft paper for comment by the end of October, which would provide some finding or recommendations from the group's consultations.
"The working group's role is really based to make an argument about whether or not the corporate rate should be reduced, and then have recommendations about how that might be paid for," Mr Heferen said.
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